Sheikh Hasina resigned from the post of Prime Minister and left the country in the wake of the 5 August 2024 mass coup. This incident will be regarded as an important turning point in the political history of Bangladesh.
It is truly incredible how a movement that started on a seemingly small demand like quota reform could turn into a massive and intense mass movement in a matter of days. The discontent that was smoldering among the people due to various reasons was revealed through this mass uprising.
There were four main reasons for this mass uprising.
First, the demand for quota reform gained widespread support among students and the general public.
Second, high inflation, shrinking job and business opportunities, and rampant corruption led to deep public discontent.
Thirdly, the lack of political freedom, restrictions on freedom of expression and political repression at various times led to increased discontent among the people.
Fourthly, the top leaders of Awami League showed arrogance and arrogance while suppressing the movement. Their excessive use of force to quell the protests resulted in an unprecedented number of deaths among students and ordinary citizens in just a few days, adding to the anger and intensity of the protests.
On August 8, 2024, Nobel laureate Dr. The interim government came to power under the leadership of Muhammad Yunus. The interim government will have the primary responsibility of managing the country in the post-coup situation and gradually laying the foundations for a democratic transition towards a stable and well-organized permanent government.
Picture of political settlement under Sheikh Hasina government
Under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina, the country’s politics were governed by an authoritarian regime. Although the 2008 election was competitive, subsequent elections in 2014, 2018 and 2024 have been widely criticized. In the 2014 elections, ruling party candidates won unopposed in more than 50 percent of the parliamentary seats due to the boycott of opposition parties. Despite the participation of the opposition parties in the 2018 elections, there were allegations of widespread rigging and irregularities. By boycotting the main opposition parties again in the 2024 elections, the continuation of serious mistrust in the electoral process remains intact.
Five key features of Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian party rule were seen. First, the regime was characterized by a coalition of five main stakeholders: ruling party politicians, influential businessmen (beneficiaries of the clan system), the civilian bureaucracy, the military bureaucracy, and law enforcement agencies, all centered on Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. These alliances worked together to maintain control and influence in various sectors.
Second, this coalition created a so-called ‘stable corruption balance’ between corrupt politicians of the ruling party, corrupt civil and military bureaucrats, corrupt law enforcement agencies and influential businessmen who benefited from the clan system. These partners in corruption developed broad consensus on important economic policies and political agendas, especially in the management of large-scale infrastructure projects and the huge profits from them.
Thirdly, the regime lacked legitimacy due to botched elections in 2014, 2018 and 2024. This lack of legitimacy was exacerbated by attempts to retain power through the use of force, political repression and widespread corruption.
Fourth, in an attempt to compensate for the lack of political legitimacy, emphasis was placed on development projects as a means of seeking regime legitimacy. By focusing on infrastructure and development, the government aimed to present itself as a promoter of progress and economic growth, thus attempting to address the shortcomings of democratic governance and political legitimacy.
Fifth, the regime was able to garner consistent support from influential countries in global and regional politics, particularly India, China and Russia, even though the country’s regime seriously lacked political legitimacy.
However, the regime’s claim to development legitimacy weakened as the economy plunged into crisis due to prolonged high inflation and macroeconomic instability. This economic crisis fueled growing public discontent and eventually mass public participation in the quota movement. As a result, the power of Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian party regime gradually weakened and with the departure of Sheikh Hasina, the old political order broke down.
Major challenges of the interim government
The interim government faces several important challenges. First, the government must address the deterioration of law and order, ensure security and restore public confidence nationwide. Security of minorities should be ensured.
Second, the disruption of economic activity has caused widespread problems. Actions should be taken to provide support to the affected (especially small and medium traders and producers), ensure availability of essential commodities in the market and restore the supply chain for economic recovery.
Third, the government must implement necessary measures to control high inflation. These include controlling inflationary pressures through monetary policy, fiscal policy and effective economic interventions.
Fourth, the government has to deal with serious macroeconomic problems, including declining foreign reserves and sluggish growth in exports and remittances.
Fifth, effective initiatives must be taken to ensure a smooth and credible democratic transition. This includes implementing reform programs that uphold democratic principles and restore public confidence in the rule of law, encourage political dialogue, and establish transparent electoral processes. Undoubtedly, these challenges are likely to increase in the context of changing and uncertain relations between the interim government and regional and global powers.
Why the need for a new political settlement?
An interim government cannot function properly in an unstable political settlement and address the aforementioned challenges. Effective democratic transition requires a new political settlement in the country, where there will be important compromises between the main stakeholders in the current politics of the country.
These partners are student activists, political parties, the military, the bureaucracy and the private sector. However, these partners have different agendas and lack of consensus between their goals and objectives. In addition, regional and global powers will seek to influence these agendas.
While the political parties are pushing for early elections, the protesting students are advocating important reforms in the political, administrative, constitutional, economic and institutional fields to ensure a meaningful democratic transition. These reforms have strong civil society support. However, the role and position of the military, bureaucracy and private sector in this context remains unclear.
There is considerable risk of reintroduction of undemocratic practices if there is no clear consensus on the need for these reforms and the possibility of elections without reforms. The outcome of the new political settlement will largely depend on the relative strength and bargaining power of these partners. Civil society organizations have an important role to play in facilitating dialogue and helping build a political consensus on the reform agenda, which will contribute to a more stable and democratic political settlement. If not, Bangladesh may face prolonged political instability.