Rakhine state, home to the Rohingya minority and wracked by conflict between Myanmar’s government forces and powerful ethnic groups, could soon face a severe famine, the United Nations development agency has warned.
In a report released on Thursday, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) said “a dire situation is emerging”, pushing western Rakhine to the “brink of an unprecedented disaster”.
The report highlighted a number of interrelated problems such as restrictions on the flow of goods from Myanmar and neighboring Bangladesh, lack of income for residents, high rates of inflation, significant declines in food production and lack of essential services and social protection systems.
“This critically endangered population could reach the brink of extinction in the coming months,” the UNDP said.
After a group of Rohingya insurgents attacked Myanmar’s security forces in August 2017, the army launched a brutal crackdown against them. At least 740 thousand Rohingya were forced to flee to Bangladesh. The army has been accused of widespread rape, murder and burning of thousands of houses.
Last November, the Arakan Army launched an offensive against the army in Rakhine, demanding autonomy from Myanmar’s central government, and took control of more than half of the state’s towns. Known as the armed forces of the Rakhine ethnic minority movement, the Arakan Army is also a member of a coalition of armed ethnic groups trying to overthrow the military.
According to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), based on their data collected in 2023 and 2024, ‘Rakhine’s economy has virtually stagnated, with key sectors such as trade, agriculture and construction almost at a standstill.’
Besides, the halt in cement imports has led to ‘massive price hikes’ and the construction industry, known as a major source of employment, has also come to a standstill.
The report, titled ‘Rakhine: The Beginning of a Famine’, said, ‘Rakhine may soon face a severe famine.’
“According to the forecast, by March-April 2025, Rakhine’s domestic food production will be able to meet only 20 percent of its needs,” the report said.
Rice production has fallen sharply due to seed and fertilizer shortages, hostile weather, increasing numbers of internally displaced people who are no longer able to farm, and ongoing conflict, the UN says. In addition, internal and external trade has almost completely stopped, putting more than two million people at risk of starvation.
The UNDP called for immediate measures to allow goods and humanitarian aid to enter Rakhine, free access for aid workers, ensure their safety and emergency funding to restore the agricultural sector.
UNDP warned, ’95 percent of the population will be left behind in the struggle for survival unless urgent measures are taken. They will be forced to fend for themselves amid a massive decline in domestic production, extreme inflation, widespread unemployment and growing insecurity.’