Is Bangladesh able to lead near future geopolitics for its location and tactical skills? How may Bangladesh do it in short notice with Bangladesh best security ensure? Give some example and references
Bangladesh, given its location and emerging strategic position, can certainly aspire to play a more significant role in geopolitics. Its location at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean is pivotal for trade, energy routes, and regional security. However, for Bangladesh to assert itself in the near future, it must employ a combination of its diplomatic, economic, and security strengths.
Leveraging Location for Regional Connectivity
Bangladesh’s location makes it a gateway for connectivity between South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean. It borders India on three sides, has close proximity to China, and access to the Bay of Bengal. By improving its infrastructure, especially ports and transit facilities, Bangladesh can become a regional hub for trade and logistics.
Example:
- Matarbari Deep-Sea Port: Bangladesh is developing the Matarbari deep-sea port with Japanese assistance, which could make the country a key player in maritime trade and logistics in the Bay of Bengal. This project could boost Bangladesh’s position in regional supply chains, serving both South and Southeast Asia.
Reference:
- Japan’s involvement in the Matarbari project, as part of its Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy, highlights Bangladesh’s growing importance in regional connectivity.
Balancing Major Powers in South Asia
Bangladesh has effectively balanced its relationships with neighboring India and China. Both countries have strategic interests in Bangladesh, particularly due to its location near the Bay of Bengal. By maintaining strong ties with both powers, Bangladesh has avoided becoming overly reliant on one, allowing it more room to maneuver in international diplomacy.
Example:
- Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Bangladesh has joined China’s BRI, benefiting from Chinese infrastructure investments. At the same time, it has maintained close security and economic ties with India, ensuring that it does not lean too far in any one direction.
Reference:
- Bangladesh has signed several BRI-related projects with China, but it also cooperates with India on security and trade, illustrating its balanced diplomacy.
Strengthening Maritime Security in the Bay of Bengal
The Bay of Bengal is increasingly seen as a strategically vital area, both for regional security and for controlling shipping routes between the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia. Bangladesh, with its growing naval capabilities, can play a critical role in securing these waters against threats such as piracy and illegal fishing, and can act as a partner in regional security alliances.
Example:
- Bangladesh Navy Modernization: Bangladesh has been upgrading its navy with new frigates, submarines, and coastal surveillance systems. This effort is designed to enhance its role in regional maritime security, allowing it to take part in multinational exercises and patrols in the Bay of Bengal.
Reference:
- Bangladesh’s “Forces Goal 2030” defense plan emphasizes strengthening its navy and air force to ensure regional security, especially in its maritime territories.
Using Diplomatic Platforms for Regional Influence
Bangladesh is an active member of regional organizations such as SAARC, BIMSTEC, and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA). By taking leadership roles in these forums, Bangladesh can shape regional cooperation on issues like trade, security, and disaster response.
Example:
- BIMSTEC Leadership: Bangladesh has consistently advocated for stronger regional cooperation under BIMSTEC, which links South Asia and Southeast Asia. By pushing for more integrated trade, infrastructure, and energy projects, Bangladesh could emerge as a leader in regional connectivity.
Reference:
- Bangladesh hosted the 4th BIMSTEC Summit in 2018, underscoring its commitment to regional cooperation and its ambition to shape the agenda of this grouping.
Economic Diplomacy for Influence
Bangladesh’s economic rise, particularly in sectors like textiles and manufacturing, has strengthened its position in international forums. By continuing to grow its economy, diversify industries, and strengthen its global trade links, Bangladesh can increase its soft power and influence.
Example:
- Textile Industry: Bangladesh is the world’s second-largest exporter of ready-made garments. Leveraging its status in this sector, it can use economic diplomacy to expand its influence in international trade negotiations and economic forums.
Reference:
- Bangladesh’s importance in global trade is underscored by its strong trade relations with the European Union, the United States, and growing ties with Southeast Asia.
Rohingya Crisis as a Diplomatic Tool
The ongoing Rohingya refugee crisis, where Bangladesh has taken in over a million refugees from Myanmar, gives it moral authority and a prominent role in humanitarian diplomacy. By leading international efforts to resolve the crisis, Bangladesh can strengthen its international standing and influence regional politics.
Example:
- Diplomatic Leadership on the Rohingya Issue: Bangladesh has engaged international forums, including the United Nations and International Court of Justice, to put pressure on Myanmar for a resolution to the Rohingya issue. This has positioned Bangladesh as a key player in human rights and refugee diplomacy.
Reference:
- Bangladesh’s leadership in addressing the Rohingya crisis has earned it recognition in international forums, and its continued diplomacy around this issue strengthens its global standing.
Ensuring National Security to Support Geopolitical Leadership
For Bangladesh to play a more significant role in geopolitics, it must ensure its internal and external security. This includes strengthening its military capabilities, securing its borders, and ensuring political stability. The country’s defense modernization programs, particularly in its navy and air force, are critical to ensuring its ability to act as a regional security provider.
Example:
- Forces Goal 2030: Bangladesh’s long-term defense modernization plan, Forces Goal 2030, aims to upgrade its military capabilities across all three branches—army, navy, and air force. This initiative is designed to ensure that Bangladesh can protect its maritime boundaries, airspace, and land territories while also contributing to regional security efforts.
Reference:
- Bangladesh’s defense modernization, particularly in naval and air capabilities, positions it to secure its interests in the Bay of Bengal and beyond.
Conclusion
While Bangladesh faces challenges such as the Rohingya crisis, balancing relations between India and China, and internal political dynamics, it has the potential to play a more influential role in regional and even global geopolitics. By leveraging its strategic location, diplomatic balance, and growing economy, and by ensuring robust national security, Bangladesh can strengthen its leadership role. The right leadership, especially with capable foreign secretaries and security officials, will be essential in turning these opportunities into reality.
References:
- Matarbari Deep-Sea Port: Japan Times coverage on Bangladesh-Japan cooperation in the Matarbari project.
- Forces Goal 2030: Bangladesh Ministry of Defence’s roadmap for defense modernization.
- BIMSTEC and Bangladesh’s Role: Reports from the BIMSTEC Secretariat and South Asian regional studies.
- Rohingya Crisis Diplomacy: United Nations reports and ICJ proceedings on the Rohingya issue.
These examples demonstrate how Bangladesh can navigate its path to becoming a more prominent geopolitical player in the near future.
Top of Form
Monirul Islam Shamim, Lawyer
Researcher, policy analyst,
CEO of Bangladesh Policy Research Institute,
Bpr.institute24 @gmail.com
London. 10.09.2024