The fact that exports in Bangladesh show more than 14 billion USD annually than the actual amount has given rise to widespread discussion and criticism in various circles.
Economists have expressed surprise and concern at the same time in the event of public institutions disclosing wrong information about an important and sensitive sector like exports.
Basically, starting from the gross domestic product or GDP of a country, the actual calculation of export income plays an important role in determining various indicators of the economy and in formulating various economic policies and plans.
But the Export Development Bureau (EPB) released the export earnings of Bangladesh for the first ten months of the fiscal year 2023-24.
As a result, many indicators of the economy including the country’s GDP, Gross National Product (GNP), foreign investment, foreign exchange reserves, borrowing policy balance of trade and the correctness of the policy have now started to be questioned.
“All in all it has put the country’s image at risk. So, it is necessary to seriously look into how such an incident happened”, said Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD) to BBC Bangla.
How did such a big mistake?
Bangladesh Bank released the actual export data in the first week of July amid criticism of the Export Development Bureau’s (EPB) inconsistent data.
It found that Bangladesh’s actual exports during July to April of FY 2023-24 were nearly USD 14 billion less than the data provided by EPB.
EPBO also revised their export data after the central bank released such information.
But there is no official statement from the EPB about how the over-showing of exports happened.
However, Prime Minister’s Adviser on Private Industries and Investment Salman F Rahman described the matter as a ‘mistake’.
According to him, inconsistency in the data has arisen due to double calculation of the same exportable product.
“What EPB has done wrong is that exports from EPZ are treated as one-off. Again when the garment is exported, it is caught again. There is a double calculation here”, Mr. told reporters on Sunday. Rahman
Due to the dollar crisis, there was a financial deficit in the country’s transactions for the past few years.
Bangladesh Bank formed a committee with representatives of Export Development Bureau and Board of Revenue to know the actual status of exports as the deficit was increasing recently.
In September last year, committee members began verifying export data.
Based on that, the fact that there is a big discrepancy in the export data finally came to the fore.
According to the data of EPB, in the last ten months of the fiscal year, the total export of goods in the country was 47.74 billion US dollars.
On the other hand, according to Bangladesh Bank, it appears that during the same period the export income was only 33.67 billion US dollars.
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Who is responsible?
The organization does not directly accept responsibility for the major inconsistencies in data found in the Export Development Bureau report.
The officials claimed that they have released the export data based on the information provided by NBR.
“So it is our fault, it cannot be said”, a senior official of the Export Development Bureau told BBC Bangla on condition of anonymity.
However, he also said that EPB is working jointly with the Board of Revenue and Bangladesh Bank to investigate the matter.
“We are sitting together and trying to find the root of the problem and solve it”, the official told BBC Bangla.
The gap between the price of export products and the export income coming into the country has been increasing in Bangladesh for a long time.
Complaints have been made about this at various times in the past from the side of businessmen.
“Since 2022, we have been saying that EPB’s export data is wrong. But our words were not taken into consideration”, Mohammad Hatim, Executive President of Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) told BBC Bangla.
Mr. hatim
“Our business was not very good during the corona. But in November 2022, EPB showed exports of five billion”, BKMEA Executive President Mr. Hatim told BBC Bangla.
“At that time I protested and said, we have not done this export”, said Mr. Hatim to BBC Bangla.
Federation of Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry-O (FBCCI) has made the same complaint.
“Where our export growth is negative, EPB shows positive. How EPB does it, we don’t know,” former FBCCI president AK Azad told BBC Bengal.
But still why the matter is not taken into account?
“Maybe they wanted to show more exports to please the government, or they may have done this for the benefit of some other group”, business leader Mr. told BBC Bangla. hatim
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That can have an impact
Analysts say that for a long time, starting from foreign investors, various organizations and researchers have been doubting the government’s various data on the economy of Bangladesh.
As a result, the incident of discrepancy in the export data that has now come to the fore, may put the image of the country in question.
At the same time, economists also feel that the acceptability of the economic indicators is under question due to the disclosure of wrong information in the case of exports.
“Since export earnings are considered important in determining many indicators of the economy, including GDP, it is not unusual to raise questions about them now,” CPD Executive Director Fahmida Khatun told BBC Bangla.
In such a situation, economists feel that many indicators of the economy including GDP, GNP, balance of trade, foreign borrowing policy are necessary to be revised.
“Bangladesh Bank’s information suggests that these indices were determined based on wrong data. As a result, they will not provide a true picture of the economy”, Ahsan H Mansoor, director of the Policy Research Institute (PRI) in Bangladesh, told BBC Bangla.
On the other hand, some fear that foreign investment and reserves may suffer due to the disclosure of wrong export data.
“Lack of credibility in government data or statistics can deter domestic and foreign investment. Because investors take this information into account before investing money”, said Salim Raihan, Executive Director of South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM) to BBC Bangla.
And for that reason, economists also think it is important to investigate how the incident of misinformation occurred.
“Who did it? why did Is this a mere procedural error, or something more? It is important to see that”, PRI Director Ahsan H Mansoor told BBC Bangla.
“It is also necessary to investigate whether someone has taken additional benefits or incentives, or whether money has been smuggled or not,” BBC Bangla told Mr. Mansur.