The Prime Minister of Bangladesh is going to Beijing on a three-day state visit from July 8 to 11. The bilateral visit to China immediately after the visit to India is seen as quite ‘significant’ for Bangladesh in the context of geopolitical situation and economic crisis.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bangladesh has not yet announced the specific agenda or how many agreements will be negotiated.
However, it is said that this visit is very important for Bangladesh. Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud said in one word that the priority in the visit to China will be the development of Bangladesh.
Bangladesh’s trade relationship with China is multidimensional. Bangladesh is the largest importer of goods from China as a single country and China has been a member of Bangladesh’s billion dollar club in terms of lending for the past few years.
Economist Mostafizur Rahman sees the possibility of discussing several issues during the Prime Minister’s upcoming visit to China.
He said, ‘Bangladesh’s relationship with China has various dimensions. Many of our students go to China. So education, infrastructure, cultural exchange, our trade investment facilities, these seem to be a multi-dimensional discussion.’
After the Chinese President’s visit to Dhaka in 2016, Bangladesh-China relations rose to the level of strategic cooperation.
This time, Bangladesh Prime Minister’s visit to China will add a new dimension to the Dhaka-Beijing archipelago and how much Bangladesh is involved in China’s global political interests, many will be looking at.
Bangladesh’s agenda
After the visit to India, it is expected that Teesta project, Rohingya problem, trade, investment and China’s borrowing to solve the economic crisis will be discussed in the upcoming visit to China.
Former Foreign Minister and currently Chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs AK Abdul Momen said that China has money which Bangladesh needs.
He said that the foreign policy of Bangladesh, especially from the political aspect, can be highlighted as the position of Bengalis in the region centered on China. Besides, since China has good relations with Myanmar, Bangladesh will seek China’s cooperation in repatriating Rohingyas.
“We can tell them, because Myanmar has good enough relations with the Chinese, we can tell them that you help us in this matter. So that we can send these Rohingyas back through dialogue and discussion.’
The former foreign minister said, another thing is that we have to increase our industrial capacity. Here’s how private-public partnerships can come in for that. We want them to do business with the private sector.
Former Foreign Minister Abdul Momen also thinks that Bangladesh will reassure China by highlighting its diplomatic position. He said, we do not like any defense pact in this area, we want development.
He said, most of China’s trade is through the Indian Ocean. In that case, Bangladesh thinks that the Indo-Pacific region will be open to all and it will be based on international rules for the development of all countries in the region.
He also said, we do not want to block any country. Others want any country to basically contain China, we are not on that line.
Economist Mostafizur Rahman thinks that the discussions that will be held during the visit to China and the signing of the memorandum of understanding will be important for Bangladesh.
‘Particularly the geopolitical position of Bangladesh, but China sees a great partnership opportunity. I think there will be a discussion on how we can move forward with China as a partner in the plan we have for integrated development in the southern region.’
Bangladesh-China bilateral meeting in Beijing in 2019
Mostafizur Rahman said, when we leave Qatar as a less developed country in November 2026, it may be that China gives us the benefit of zero tariff market.
“Also we could start negotiating a free trade agreement or a comprehensive economic partnership that’s on a larger scale.”
Teesta Project
After the Prime Minister’s visit to India, during his visit to China, there was a lot of discussion about the cooperation of any country in the implementation and investment of the Teesta Project. After India’s proposal in the Teesta project came forward, Bangladesh can tell what will happen to China’s proposal in this project in this summit meeting.
Munshi Faiz Ahmed, the former ambassador of Bangladesh to China, believes that Bangladesh can join both countries in the Teesta project if it wants.
He said that China is the biggest trading partner of Bangladesh and Bangladesh receives huge investment from China.
‘It is important for me to keep India happy, it is also important to keep China happy. So it may be that since the project is big, we may ask India to do some part of the project and China to do some part. These can be There will be a discussion on how China thinks about these issues.
Former Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen said that a decision on the Teesta project will be made on the basis of dialogue.
He said the Chinese are saying we can pay around $8 million there. As a result India is now saying we can help you. We have no quarrel with anyone.
He thinks that the Teesta project will be discussed and the issue may be raised from the Chinese side. However, Momen does not think that anything will happen very soon.
Infrastructure and credit demand
During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Dhaka in 2016, 27 agreements were signed. This included around $25 billion in grants, loans and other private sector commitments with the government totaling $40 billion in commitments.
Although Bangladesh could not take this amount of loan or money from China. However, in the light of that agreement, big projects are being implemented in Bangladesh with Chinese money.
It is known from various media reports that Bangladesh will ask China to help in the implementation of several more projects of roads, bridges and railways during the visit to China. Besides, Bangladesh may ask for a loan of 5-7 billion dollars from China to deal with the economic crisis.
In the upcoming meeting with China, the implementation of Bangladesh’s infrastructure projects and public debt facilities to meet the budget deficit are being discussed.
In the meantime, 9 project funding proposals of the Ministry of Roads and Railways have been sent to the Ministry of External Affairs where there is a project to construct a railway line through Barisal to Payra Port and Kuakata along with the Padma Setu rail link. Besides, it is also known that China’s financing may be sought for the implementation of a metro rail project.
“If we can do trade with China in yuan, then we will be able to reduce the use of foreign currency. Such a compromise may come. A budget support may come again. It is heard that we can ask for a budget support of 5 billion dollars. If that happens, it will give us a big relief in the current situation,” said economist Mostafizur Rahman.
Former Foreign Minister Abdul Momen thinks that Bangladesh may make a proposal to reduce the interest rate of the loan during the visit to China.
“Last time when the honorable Prime Minister went to China, he requested the Chinese government that we cannot pay more interest. We are a poor country. They agreed they put a cap on charging no more than two percent in any case. It was the one percent we wanted. We may propose that you reduce it.’
Warning about China’s loans
China’s position has now risen to the top five in the list of lenders to Bangladesh. Besides, China’s position is after Japan and Russia in the list of taking loans based on island negotiations.
Since the Chinese President’s visit to Bangladesh in 2016, lending has increased rapidly. In the last four fiscal years, 3 billion dollars have come to Bangladesh from China.
This time again, there are news in the newspapers that a proposal is being made to take a huge amount of loan for many big projects.
Assessing China’s debt risk and foreign debt situation, economists advise caution on China’s debt.
As economic analysts are cautious about Bangladesh’s relationship and debt with China, neighboring countries and Western countries are wary of whether Bangladesh is becoming dependent on China.
Former foreign minister AK Abdul Momen said in this regard, Bangladesh is cautious about taking loans. Bangladesh needs China for the sake of infrastructure development and project implementation.
‘China’s advantage is they have the money, surplus money. And see that India also borrows from China. Others burn their skin when they take a loan, but they take it themselves.’
He said, Hon’ble Prime Minister went to India, I think a compromise has been reached. As a result, this visit to China will be very meaningful and very important. We may get a lot of help from China.